I had the great pleasure of joining David Beckworth on his Macro Musings podcast to discuss what monetary and fiscal policy can do to fight the negative impact of the coronavirus, as well as the future of monetary policy given the soon arrival of the effective lower bound. Have a listen!
Investors have been assuming the effects of the coronavirus will be temporary and central banks will step in to clean up the mess if that’s wrong. Here is my latest in the Financial Times on why and how you should immunise your portfolio from the coronavirus.
In my latest column in the Financial Times, I argue that the policy framework reviews under way at the Federal Reserve and now the European Central Bank are the monetary equivalent of swimming upstream: a lot of energy will be expended, but they won’t really get anywhere. To the extent that these reviews continue to focus on tweaking inflation targets as a strategy, they will be largely pointless. I offer up some alternative tools and strategies that might be more useful.
Here’s a link to a segment I did on CNBC Squawk Box–see if you can spot the scowl on my face as the presenter laid out his argument that inequality has decreased under the so-called “Trump economy,” so the Democrat candidates shouldn’t bother focusing on the issue in their campaigns. I hadn’t realized there was general confusion about this…stay tuned for some writing on this topic!
I was honoured to be the first to contribute to a series of publications and roundtable discussions as part of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum. Given it’s a new year and a new decade, I wrote an outlook for global trade. The markets kicked off January euphoric about a Phase One Deal between the US and China, but with tensions remaining between those two countries and likely escalating between the US and Europe, expect trade uncertainty to continue to drag on global growth.
A depressing consensus prevailed among economists at the recent AEA/ASSA annual meetings: the developed world is stuck with low growth, low inflation and low interest ratesfor years to come. Even worse, there is no consensus on why.
Supply and demand for goods and services are basic economic concepts. But when it comes to interpreting shocks to either in the real world, things get murky. Some economists blame prevailing conditions in the industrialised world on flagging supply, others on weak demand. Here’s my take, and what to do about it, in the Financial Times.