IIF Annual Meetings: US Economic Outlook

I joined Beth Ann Bovino, Jonathan Pingle and Elina Ribakova this week to speak on a panel about the US Economic Outlook at the IIF Annual Meetings, which usually occur alongside the IMF/WB meetings. We discussed what indicators we’re watching closely to see when we may have found a bottom, how the US has handled the shock to the labour market (compared with Europe), whether we should worry about inflation, prospects for the oil market and what that means for the economy and why we all need to care about Emerging Markets right now.

Realities bite in the US

I joined Asset TV to talk about US earnings this far and what they suggest about the US economy, whether we have the right tools to funnel cash where it’s needed in the economy, how long this lockdown will last and what the choreography of reopening the economy might look like and what shape the economic recovery is likely to take. Tune in here: https://www.asset.tv/player/assettv-non-login-player/107510 

The Mother of all Recessions

Yep. That’s what we’re facing into. And the recovery probably won’t be V or U-shaped. It might look more like a Nike Swoosh, with the back end zig zagged to reflect intermittent isolation. Or it may look like a square root sign.

In an interview with my alma mater, Phillips Academy Andover, I share some insights on the COVID-19 pandemic and how this crisis is like nothing the world has ever seen before.

Pandemic economics

I joined Richard Baldwin and George Papaconstantinou for a webinar on pandemic economics this morning. In it we covered:

What will be the likely economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and the world?

What are the factors determining the length and depth of the crisis and the shape of the recovery?

What are governments doing to mitigate the economic costs of the health crisis, protect jobs and incomes, and ensure economies recover when the worst of the pandemic is over?

Is the $US2 trillion package in the US the right policy instrument? Is it appropriately targeted?

In Europe, is the 750 billion euro Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme of the European Central Bank sufficient in the current circumstances?

Is there a need for the use of the European Stability Mechanism resources or the creation of a corona-bond?

What will our economies look like once the pandemic is over and the economic recovery is under way?

Please find the recording here.