State of the Eurozone (and the US)

“I think in the US if we look back and think ‘what a wasted recovery,’ the Europeans are going to do it doubly. And that’s partly because there’s just a whole bunch of institutional architecture that still needs to happen in the Eurozone in order for the Euro to really be a sustainable project.”

Here’s a clear-headed, non-sensationalist view of the state of the eurozone (and the US) in an Expert View I did with Real Vision (Click here for the full video, but that one is paywalled).

Outlook for the US Economy

The US equity and bond markets are telling completely different stories about the outlook for the country’s economy. In the first seven months of 2019, the S&P 500 index rose by 10.2 per cent, suggesting firms could continue producing strong corporate earnings off the back of decent economic growth. Over the same time period, borrowing costs on 10-year Treasuries fell from 2.68 per cent to 1.89 per cent, sign-posting lower rates and inflation, and the likelihood of recession ahead. This economic recovery in the United States is the longest on record, and analysts are on the lookout for signs it is ending. Who has it right—equity or bond investors?

Here’s my overview for the US economy in Prospect Magazine: https://bit.ly/2OJbSZJ

Trade tensions are strangling American manufacturing

The US manufacturing sector has now contracted for two consecutive quarters, according to the Federal Reserve, raising concerns a general recession is drawing near. But those fears remind me of a triathlon I recently completed. With burning lungs and a pounding heart, I’d really flagged during the swimming section. Then I recovered and finished fine. So does a limping manufacturing sector really mean the American expansion will end? https://www.ft.com/content/9382e6a8-b2b2-11e9-b2c2-1e116952691a