The eurozone has some worrying Japan-like qualities—potential growth is weak, demographics are unfavorable and the European Central Bank has extended its foray into unconventional monetary policy to not only buy up bonds but to impose negative rates as well. With most investors and analysts convinced the worst of the euro crisis is behind us, will we look back when the next downturn hits and think “what a wasted recovery?” What does the eurozone need to avoid Japanification and put the euro crisis behind it for good, and what are the prospects for any of that happening? In answering these questions, we’ll take a look at the new leadership in Europe not only in national capitals but in Brussels at European institutions and in Frankfurt at the ECB as well.

This talk will be held at the Harvard Kennedy School with Carsten Brzeski (The Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies’ John F. Kennedy Memorial Policy Fellow 2019 and Chief Economist, ING Germany) and myself. Come join!

November 4, 4:00-5:30, M-RCBG Conference Room, B-503

From the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Conference to the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings, the policy takeaway of this year is that coordinated monetary easing is not going to be enough when the next recession comes. Fiscal stimulus will be necessary to maintain global growth. The economics are sound, but the politics are problematic. Here’s my latest in the Financial Times on why I wouldn’t hold my breath for fiscal stimulus.

I co-hosted Bloomberg’s Daybreak Americas with Alix Steel and we broke down the jobs data. The labor market continues to look strong, despite a GM strike that distorted the numbers. There was an overall drop in manufacturing jobs–high wage, high hour jobs (the good kind that we want to be adding)–but not as many as we expected given the GM strike. This means other manufacturers added about 20k jobs to the labor force last month–that isn’t a bad result!

Here is a clip from the segment dissecting the jobs data: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-11-01/fed-can-pat-themselves-on-the-back-after-jobs-report-harvard-s-greene-video

Here is another clip with Kristin Dziczek (Center for Automotive Research) discussing the nitty gritty of the GM strike and the implications for the US economy: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-11-01/ford-avoids-a-strike-while-gm-s-impact-lingers-with-suppliers-video