Greek Elections: Returning to the Unsustainable Status Quo

New Democracy (ND) just barely pulled ahead of the anti-bailout, left-wing Syriza in the election on June 17th. According to Greek law, the party in first place wins 50 bonus seats in parliament. With roughly 85% of the votes counted and Syriza having conceded defeat, it looks like ND will have 130 seats, Syriza 71, Pasok 33, the Independent Greeks 20, Golden Dawn 18, the Democratic Left 16 and the KKE 12. The markets will view a ND victory as good news, but is it really? I expect the rally to be short, as this election has just returned us to the utterly unsustainable status quo. Read more of this post

Greece will get the next tranche of funding

The troika is threatening to deny Greece more funding unless the country meets the terms of its bailout programme, protestors are gathering in Syntagma Square and Greek prime minister George Papandreou faces significant opposition within his ruling party.

It feels like June all over again.

Everyone is waiting with baited breath to see if the Greek government can pass and implement enough reforms to appease the troika over the next few weeks. However, it is in no one’s best interest for Greece to default next month. Unless domestic political wrangling in Greece precludes the government from passing any further austerity measures, Greece will get more funding in October and disaster will be averted until December.

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