3yr LTRO: Breaking or strengthening the banking/sovereign feedback loop?

The 3-year LTRO was announced by ECB president Mario Draghi following the December governing council meeting, alongside (among other things) a drop in collateral requirements at the ECB. These measures were designed to short circuit the endless feedback loop between sovereigns and banks by sticking the ECB right in between them. The idea is for banks to offload questionable assets from their balance sheets in exchange for cheap liquidity from the ECB, which banks can use to lend and invest as banks are meant to do. Will attempts to break the circular reference between sovereigns and banks and prevent the interbank markets from freezing succeed with this new 3-year LTRO, or will banks take advantage of the carry-trade and strengthen the feedback loop? Read more of this post

Europe’s banks could be in big trouble

On August 28th the IMF’s new chief Christine Lagarde was bombarded with criticism after she insisted that Europe’s weakest banks need urgent recapitalization in order to curb contagion in the euro crisis. Her main critics were ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet and European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn, who countered that Europe’s banks do not need liquidity or fresh capital. However, developments over the past month overwhelmingly support Ms Lagarde’s assertion. In both the peripheral and the core countries, European banks could really be in big trouble.

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Greece has enough hurdles left for a track and field event

Tuesday night’s vote of confidence in the Greek parliament was crucial, but it was only the first of many hurdles for Greece. Even if Greece manages to clear each and every remaining hurdle, it is still unlikely the government will be returned to solvency.

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